美國彭博社5月19日文章，原題：中美貿易休戰促使各國考慮更強硬策略

中美最新一輪關稅談判暫時達成“休戰”，但中國在談判中展現出的強硬立場，引發了其他國家的關注與思考。

在這場博弈中，中國成功將美方原先高達145%的關稅，壓低到約30%左右的水平。中國不僅守住了基本利益，還爭取到一個相對有利的談判框架。這一表現讓其他國家開始反思：面對美國，一味妥協真的是最佳選擇嗎？

China's defiant stance in negotiating a tariff truce with the US has convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own trade talks with the Trump administration.

多國開始質疑“溫和外交”是否有效

一直以來，不少國家選擇盡量避免與美國正面沖突，希望通過溫和交涉換取空間。但中國的“硬碰硬”做法卻取得一定成果，這讓原本配合美國、避免正面對抗的國家紛紛感到意外，開始懷疑溫和外交是否真的是最佳途徑。

After China's tough negotiating tactics earned it a favorable deal, nations taking a more diplomatic and expedited approach are questioning whether that's the right path.

新加坡尤索夫伊薩東南亞研究院的資深研究員、前美國貿易談判代表奧爾森（Stephen Olson）表示：“許多國家會從這次中美談判的結果得出一個結論：特朗普開始意識到自己玩兒得太過火了。”

"This shifts the negotiating dynamic," said Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator who's now a visiting senior fellow with ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. "Many countries will look at the outcome of the Geneva negotiations and conclude that Trump has begun to realize that he has overplayed his hand."

不少分析人士認為，美國之所以在對華談判中愿意讓步，也受到了國內經濟壓力的影響。 野村證券全球宏觀研究主管蘇博文 （ Robert Subbaraman）表示：“ 美國經濟受到的傷害更直接、更廣泛， 這份協議某種程度上就是特朗普政府在承認這一點?！?/p>

"The economic pain is more immediate and broad-based in the US and this deal can be seen as the Trump administration acknowledging that," said Robert Subbaraman, head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc.

各國不再急于妥協，談判節奏放緩

雖然大多數國家在公開場合仍保持低調，但一些國家已經出現立場轉變的跡象。例如，韓國總統候選人李在明（Lee Jae-myung）就批評過渡政府在對美談判中過于倉促，表示自己不會急著達成協議。

South Korea's leading presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung said there's no need to rush for an early agreement in trade negotiations with the US, criticizing the interim government for what he called a hasty engagement with the Trump administration.

對于特朗普聲稱印度愿意對美國產品全面降稅， 印度外交部長蘇杰生（ Subrahmanyam Jaishankar）回應說，談判仍在繼續，“現在做結論還太早”。

While Trump also said that India was prepared to lower all tariffs on US goods, the nation's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters that trade talks are ongoing and "any judgment on it would be premature".

日本方面也在調整策略。負責日本關稅談判的赤澤亮正（Ryosei Akazawa）說，希望6月就能和美國談妥，但多方消息指出，更可能拖到7月。東京方面傾向于“寧可談得慢，也不愿太早讓步”。

Policymakers in Tokyo may be starting to think that it's preferable to take time rather than make major concessions to wrap up things up quickly.

5月1日，美日兩國在華盛頓展開會談 圖源：彭博社

BCA研究公司的地緣宏觀首席策略師馬爾科·帕皮奇（Marko Papic）說：“許多國家或將從中國的經驗中認識到，與特朗普總統談判的正確方式是堅守底線、沉著應對，最后迫使其讓步?！?/p>

"There are many countries that may learn from China that the correct way to negotiate with President Trump is to stand firm, remain calm and force him to capitulate," said Marko Papic, chief strategist of GeoMacro at BCA Research.

專家：不是所有國家都能“硬碰硬”

盡管 中國 這次 談判 的 結果 相對 可觀， 但專家指出，并不是所有國家都有實力和美國“硬碰硬”。

新加坡國立大學教授、世界銀行中國局前局長郝福滿（Bert Hofman）就指出，真正敢于強硬的國家，首先要經濟實力夠強，其次不能太依賴美國市場?！皩Χ鄶祰襾碚f，和美國硬碰硬依然是件冒險的事?！?/p>

But only nations with economic heft and limited reliance on trade with the US may be able to act on that, according to Bert Hofman, professor at the National University of Singapore and a former World Bank country director for China. "It's pretty risky for most countries to be tough on the US," Hofman said by phone.

比如加拿大，有消息稱其幾乎取消了所有對美國商品的關稅，但財政部長尚佩恩（Francois-Philippe Champagne）隨后澄清，加拿大其實還保留了七成反制關稅，僅在部分涉及公共健康和安全的商品上“臨時暫?！?。

A prime example of that is Canada, which Oxford Economics said last week had effectively suspended almost all of its tariffs on US products. Canada's finance minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne, disputed that, saying 70 percent of the counter-tariffs implemented by Canada in March are still in place. The government "temporarily and publicly paused tariffs" on some items for health and public safety reasons.

再比如越南，其三分之一的經濟都依賴對美出口，缺乏足夠的談判底氣。盡管官方公開批評美方關稅“不合理”，實質上仍難以采取強硬行動。

For Vietnam, one-third of its economy depends on trade with the US, and that lack of leverage means there isn't scope to do much more than talk tough.

未來，如果各國要在談判中反擊美國，服務貿易可能成為新的突破口。穆迪分析公司經濟學家卡特里娜·厄爾（Katrina Ell）認為，歐盟、日本、新加坡和韓國等國在服務貿易上都對美國有明顯順差，這或許會成為下一輪博弈的重點領域。

正如厄爾所言：“中國手里的牌太多了，美國沒法一直強硬。但其他國家未必能做到這一點。我們需要牢記的一點是：關鍵在于誰掌握了談判籌碼。”

"China has too much leverage over the US for the US to continue with its hardline stance whereas that's not the case for many other economies," Ell said by phone. "That's what we need to keep in mind, leverage and who has that leverage."

編輯：左卓

見習編輯：裴禧盈

來源：彭博社

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