編者按：近日，中國人民大學(xué)重陽金融研究院院長王文、香港大學(xué)當(dāng)代中國與世界研究中心創(chuàng)始主任李成受邀做客CGTN《論見中國》欄目 。英籍資深時政編輯John Goodrich、CGTN社交媒體專家李菁菁擔(dān)任對話主持人。現(xiàn)將第二期節(jié)目（ ）對話中英文視頻及內(nèi)容發(fā)布如下。 （全文中英文約6600字，預(yù)計閱讀時間12分鐘）

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John Goodrich：我想我們現(xiàn)在可以進(jìn)入第二個話題，也是您二位剛剛提到的中國的消費(fèi)問題。話題二是：中國是否正經(jīng)歷消費(fèi)降級？

消費(fèi)問題在中國已經(jīng)是一個討論了很長時間的熱門話題。外界一直認(rèn)為，中國的消費(fèi)疲軟，特別是與發(fā)達(dá)國家的消費(fèi)占GDP比例相比。有兩個例子：一個是《日經(jīng)亞洲》的報道，稱大多數(shù)中國人對消費(fèi)降級感到不安；另一個來自《南華早報》，指出中國中產(chǎn)階級因房地產(chǎn)低迷沖擊個人財務(wù)狀況而倍感壓力。在去年的中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會議和上周三剛剛發(fā)布的政府工作報告中，擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需均被列為重點(diǎn)任務(wù)。此外還制定了提高可支配收入的計劃和目標(biāo)。

李教授，您能否談?wù)劗?dāng)前中國消費(fèi)水平問題的嚴(yán)重程度？這一問題是否真的至關(guān)重要？如果是的話，已采取了哪些具體措施來提升消費(fèi)水平？

李成：當(dāng)然，刺激中國消費(fèi)一直是一個重要的話題。但我對“消費(fèi)降級”這個表述持有異議。我認(rèn)為這是一個非常有問題的詞。它似乎在暗示，像旅游，當(dāng)前民眾選擇更實(shí)惠或理性的消費(fèi)模式，相較于過去以房地產(chǎn)熱潮為主導(dǎo)的消費(fèi)形態(tài)而言，是一種降級。因此我們不禁要問：這種對比是否客觀？還是可行和可取的？就像每個家庭購買許多房產(chǎn)一樣，我認(rèn)為那本身就是瘋狂或危險的。

基于此，我主張用消費(fèi)“調(diào)整”或消費(fèi)“常態(tài)”替代所謂的消費(fèi)降級，即回歸消費(fèi)常態(tài)。現(xiàn)在，有一個關(guān)于旅游業(yè)的話題。你知道，人們正在全國各地旅行。王文院長剛剛提到過，這非常有趣。去年和今年春節(jié)，國內(nèi)旅游人數(shù)接近5億人次——這是美國人口的1.5倍多，而這僅僅都在一周或幾周內(nèi)發(fā)生的。中國的旅游業(yè)非常有活力。因此，如果這種活力持續(xù)下去，中國的消費(fèi)將會更加強(qiáng)勁地反彈。

此外，消費(fèi)變得更加多樣化。一方面，減少以前將80%或70%的資金投入房地產(chǎn)的危險模式，這是非常危險的，需要加以改正。 另一方面，人們開始投資于不同的領(lǐng)域。我認(rèn)為更關(guān)鍵的是，探索如何讓發(fā)展模式優(yōu)先實(shí)現(xiàn)多樣化。因此，看到中國從城市居民到農(nóng)村居民都擁有了差異化的消費(fèi)選擇，我認(rèn)為這是很好的趨勢。

當(dāng)然，我們期待消費(fèi)率能持續(xù)提升，中國的儲蓄率不要保持那么高。并非要抑制消費(fèi)，而是要避免將所有資金過度投入到房地產(chǎn)。這種趨勢已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，我認(rèn)為這是良性的發(fā)展。

John Goodrich：李教授提到消費(fèi)趨勢正在經(jīng)歷一種積極的結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整，王教授，您是否認(rèn)同這一判斷？您認(rèn)為消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域還存在哪些潛在挑戰(zhàn)？因?yàn)樗呀?jīng)在GDP的40%到45%之間停滯了一段時間。正如我之前提到的，這比發(fā)達(dá)國家要低。您能解釋一下為什么會這樣，以及這種情況可能會如何隨著時間而改變嗎？

王文：我同意所謂的“消費(fèi)降級”是一個帶有很強(qiáng)意識形態(tài)色彩的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)術(shù)語。比如，我給你舉個例子。過去，我非常喜歡開車，認(rèn)為私家車是身份和地位的象征，盡管每天都很擁堵。但我必須開車，保養(yǎng)我的車，還要花很多錢。但現(xiàn)在說實(shí)話，我不喜歡開車了，因?yàn)楣步煌ㄏ到y(tǒng)不斷完善，滴滴打車也很方便。所以，選擇乘地鐵或公交出行既環(huán)保又經(jīng)濟(jì)，我花的錢也更少。那么，這是不是所謂的消費(fèi)降級呢？不，我不這樣認(rèn)為。這不是所謂的消費(fèi)降級，而是理性消費(fèi)或消費(fèi)理性。

剛剛，李教授也談到了消費(fèi)常態(tài)化。我覺得這也可以理解為，我的生活方式比以前更加正常了。關(guān)于你提到的數(shù)據(jù)，2024年中國的總消費(fèi)額為48萬億元，比上一年增長了3.5%。

某些消費(fèi)增長得非常快，遠(yuǎn)超其他領(lǐng)域。例如，正如李教授和我多次提到的，旅游消費(fèi)增長了70%。這表明中國人開始享受生活了。

當(dāng)然，我們也知道，中國的房地產(chǎn)消費(fèi)確實(shí)相對較低，但中國人擁有房產(chǎn)或公寓的比例是世界上最高的。你不可能一直買房或者買車。而且另一方面，汽車市場仍在增長，綠色消費(fèi)、科技消費(fèi)、文化和旅游消費(fèi)——我剛才提到的這些都在增長。

因此，我同意李成教授所說的。與其說中國在消費(fèi)降級，不如說中國正在轉(zhuǎn)變消費(fèi)模式，或者說正在消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)型更為準(zhǔn)確。這些就是我的觀點(diǎn)。

對話英文版原文

John Goodrich:I think we can move on to our second topic now, which is something both of you have mentioned in passing—the consumption in China.So, the second topic is: Is China experiencing a consumption downgrade?

Consumption has been a hot topic for quite a long time in China.There have been suggestions from outside that consumption was weak, particularly in relation to developed nations as a percentage of GDP.

We’ve got some examples here: one from Nikkei Asia. Most Chinese feel an uneasy consumption downgrade. And another from the South China Morning Post. China's middle class feels squeezed as the property slump hits pocketbooks.

So boosting domestic demand was highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference last year and also in the Government Work Report just last Wednesday.

And there are plans and targets to raise disposable income as well.

So, Professor Li, can you tell us how big an issue consumption levels are in China?Is it really important? And if so, what measures have been taken to try and improve levels?

Li Cheng:Of course, stimulating Chinese consumption is always an important subject.

But I have a problem with the term “consumption downgrade”. I think that is very very highly problematic. It seems to suggest that, like tourism, more affordable or rational consumption nowadays is a downgrade compared with the previous consumption pattern, which heavily emphasized real estate fever.

So, we may ask ourselves, is that realistic, or is that feasible and desirable?

Only just like each family to buy numerous housing units, I think this is, itself is crazy or dangerous.

So, I would say that the so-called consumption degrade should be changed to consumption “adjustment” or consumption “normalcy”. Return to consumption normalcy.

Now, one thing is about tourism. You know, people are traveling around the country, Wang Wen just mentioned that, it’s really fascinating.

Last and this Spring Festival, domestic travelling, total number reached almost 500 million people—this is more than one and a half times the U.S. population, all within one week or couple weeks move around.

That's very very dynamic. So, if this dynamic continues, China's consumption will even more seriously bounce back.

Also, that consumption became more diversified.

On one part, reducing the previous dangerous pattern of putting money 80 percent, 70 percent into property. This is extremely dangerous and needs to be fixed.

Now, people are investing in different things. I think the more important thing is to find different ways for other development to take priority.

So, I think it's a welcome development to see Chinese urban dwellers, or even rural dwellers, having different ways to consume.

Of course, we hope that the consumption rate will continue to increase, and China's saving rate will not maintain that high. But the confidence or development should be avoiding put all the money in the real estate. So, this is happening, and I think it’s a healthy development.

John Goodrich：Professor Li says there’s a readjustmentin a positive one in terms of consumption trends. Professor Wang, do you think that’s the case, and can you see any other areas where consumption can be more of a challenge? Because it’s been stuck at 40% to 45% of GDP ratio for a little bit. As I mentioned earlier, it’s much less than developed countries. Can you say why that might be and how that might change over time?

Wang Wen:Well, I agree that the so-called 'consumption downgrade' is a very ideological term in economics. For example, I tell you a story. In the past, I used to love driving and thought that a private car was a symbol of identity and status, even if it was congested every day. But I have to drive, and maintain my car, and pay a lot of money. But now, to be honest, I don’t like driving because the public transportation system is constantly improving, and taking a car from Didi is also very convenient.

So choosing to travel by subway or bus is both environmentally friendly and economical, and I pay less. So, is it so-called consumption downgrade? No, I don’t think so. It’s not called consumption downgrade, but rather rational consumption or consumption rationality.

Right now, Professor Li is talking about consumption normalization. I think this is also my lifestyle becoming much normal than before. And about the database you’ve mentioned, in 2024, China’s total consumption was 48 trillion yuan, and increase of 3.5% of the previous year.

Some consumption grew very fast, much faster than other dimensions. For example, right now, Professor Li mentioned and also I mentioned many times, tourism consumption increased by 70 percent. This shows that Chinese people begin to enjoy life.

And also, of course, we know that China’s real estate consumption is indeed relatively low, but the portion of Chinese own houses or apartments is the highest in the world. You can not always buy a house or buy a car.

However, on the other hand, the automotive market is still growing with green consumption, technology consumption, and cultural tourism consumption—all of which I just mentioned are on the rise.

So, I agree with Professor Li Cheng right now said. Instead of saying that China is downgrading consumption, it is more accurate to say that China is transforming consumption, or consumption transformation. So, these are my points.

重要！重要！重要！

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中國人民大學(xué)重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立于2013年1月19日，是重陽投資向中國人民大學(xué)捐贈并設(shè)立教育基金運(yùn)營的主要資助項(xiàng)目。

作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數(shù)十位前政要、銀行家、知名學(xué)者為高級研究員，旨在關(guān)注現(xiàn)實(shí)、建言國家、服務(wù)人民。目前，人大重陽下設(shè)7個部門、運(yùn)營管理4個中心(生態(tài)金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發(fā)展、全球治理、大國關(guān)系、宏觀政策等研究領(lǐng)域在國內(nèi)外均具有較高認(rèn)可度。

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