復(fù)旦智庫報(bào)告（總第119期）

超級(jí)智能：少數(shù)派報(bào)告

ASI: Minority Report

上海論壇2025分論壇“超級(jí)智能機(jī)器、技術(shù)想象與人類未來”于4月26日在復(fù)旦大學(xué)舉辦，復(fù)旦智庫報(bào)告·未來系列《超級(jí)智能：少數(shù)派報(bào)告》（ASI: Minority Report）在本次分論壇上發(fā)布。 報(bào)告由復(fù)旦大學(xué)楊慶峰教授領(lǐng)銜，來自中山大學(xué)、蘇州大學(xué)、上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院、復(fù)旦大學(xué)等高校教師參與了撰寫。該報(bào)告提出，應(yīng)將超級(jí)智能視為一個(gè)日益迫近的現(xiàn)實(shí)問題，而非僅僅停留在科幻想象或生存焦慮的建構(gòu)層面。報(bào)告認(rèn)為，承認(rèn)超級(jí)智能現(xiàn)實(shí)性的觀點(diǎn)雖仍屬“少數(shù)派”，但這部分意見卻日益顯現(xiàn)出其真理性和緊迫性。報(bào)告內(nèi)容分為超級(jí)智能的歷史想象、現(xiàn)實(shí)分析與未來應(yīng)對(duì)。報(bào)告為中英雙語，目前發(fā)布英文簡版。

Co-Publisher

楊慶峰

復(fù)旦大學(xué)科技倫理與人類未來研究院教授、研究員

Yang Qingfeng, Professor and research fellow at the Institute of Technology Ethics for Human Future, Fudan University

劉永謀

中國人民大學(xué)吳玉章講席教授，哲學(xué)院博士生導(dǎo)師

Liu Yongmou, Wu Yuzhang Chair Professor at Renmin University of China (RUC), a doctoral supervisor at the School of Philosophy

閆宏秀

上海交通大學(xué)教授，博士生導(dǎo)師

Yan Hongxiu,Professor and doctoral supervisor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

Executive Summary

In the debate over the feasibility of ASI, supporting view remain in the minority. The concept of ultraintelligent machine and the intelligence explosion, proposed by Irving John Good in 1964, did not achieve much attention. In 1998, Hans Moravec raised concerns about the threat ASI poses to humanity. In 2014, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom sparked public interest, but these issues remained confined to sci-fictional narratives and poetic narratives. Ilya Sutskever proposed at NeurIPS 2024 conference that ASI with reasoning power would lead to “incredibly unpredictable” behavior. OpenAI’s Sam Altman suggested that ASI could massively accelerate scientific discovery and innovation, enhancing wealth and prosperity. This has created an opportunity for a shift in perspectives on ASI, transforming it into a pressing issue that demands serious consideration. In 2025, Yoshua Bengio has used ‘Scientist AI’ as a potential solution to address the catastrophic risks posed by superintelligent agents. However, people remain unaware of this change, continuing to view ASI as a mere product of imagination. This report endeavors to change such perceptions.

This report is mainly divided into three parts: The first part, “Historical Imagination,” examines the discourse surrounding ASI in the intellectual histories of both China and the West. It traces the evolution of AI from Weak AI and AGI to ASI, with its reality becoming increasingly evident. The scientific, psychological, and philosophical foundations have collectively fostered the emergence of ASI. This section also analyzes the perspectives of four key narrative subjects—scientists, science fiction writers, philosophers, and the media scholars—regarding ASI, categorizing their views into two primary stances: realism and anti-realism. The second part, “Present Analysis,” explores the scientific pathways through which ASI can be realized: AGI, Embodied AI, and Interactive Intelligence. It discusses the opportunities ASI presents, including the acceleration of scientific discovery and innovation, the enhancement of wealth, and the potential for intelligence augmentation. However, it also examines the risks involved, such as ASI’s potential for self-replication or self-preservation in response to shutdown problem, the consequences of autonomous logic exceeding human-imposed boundaries, and the threat of self-awareness leading to the collapse of human civilization. The third part, “Futuristic Responses,” examines potential response strategies, with a focus on the integration of technology and culture. It highlights the significance of philosophical and ethical approaches in addressing the challenges posed by ASI. Technical responses can address technological risks through methods such as aligning ASI with human values, mitigating the collapse caused by synthetic data, and addressing the dilution of capabilities caused by data distillation, with the principle of “governing technology with technology” being overly evident. Philosophically, reflections can be made through strategies such as designing G?del bombs and responding to risks. Ethically, the adoption of virtue ethics focused on dedication and the promotion of contractual ethics as a new ethical approach are advocated.

Contents

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