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摘要

昨天（2024年6月20日）2023年度的影響因子發布了，你們不是都在問幾家歡喜幾家愁嗎？我來告訴你們答案！8581家歡喜，12332家愁！具體看后面的分析。這里我想說的是，寅吃卯糧的結果就是這樣子！就如同這些年的經濟環境的變化一樣，前些年瘋狂加杠桿向未來借錢，當下就只能賣力償債了！當然了，如果不須要長期把影響因子作為晉升等加分項的朋友們可能也無所謂這種變化了。

總體情況變化——定量分析

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去年的統計結果是基于前Top600個期刊的數據，降低的期刊數大約為60.83%，相比而言，今年IF降低的期刊數和去年持平，為60.54%（圖1）。但要知道，這里面可能很多期刊是連續降了兩年了。粗略比較了一些期刊的2023年度和兩三年前的影響因子，大多掉到了兩三年前的水平（具體多少誰愛分析去分析吧?。?。有13.49%的期刊IF沒有變化，在當下的情況下，沒變化也是個好事了！再看看IF升高的期刊，有26%（圖1），應該也能安慰不少朋友了吧！

圖1與去年IF的比較（比值形式）

再來看看IF升高和降低的期刊一般是一個怎樣的分布，如圖2所示，升高至3-8分的期刊數量估計有1000個，而降低至3-8分的期刊數量大概有2500個。另外，根據紅線上下的綠色面積也可以看出來，上漲的一般是微漲，下跌的基本上是大跌了。

圖2IF升高和降低期刊IF分布

新參與計算IF的期刊

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這些期刊共計543個，初步核查大多數為ESCI，目前只是被WOS考察，參與了IF的計算，尚未轉正。這里面的SCI期刊只占了一小部分，但也值得關注（趁沒多少人了解，趕緊投上！）。其中，5分以上的ESCI我認為是很好的潛力股，值得長期關注（見表1，紅色文字）。

表1. “新增”期刊（共計）影響因子情況

期刊名/縮寫IF20235年IFAN LIT ESP-SPAIN 0.1 N/A ISTOR 20 VEKA 0.1 N/A MEDIEV ENCOUNT 0.1 N/A EUPHROSYNE 0.1 0.1 ANN STORIA U ITAL 0.1 N/A CHINA ASIA 0.1 N/A ESKIYENI 0.1 N/A TRADITION 0.1 N/A ORIGINI 0.1 N/A STUD HIST OECON 0.1 N/A DE JURE LAW J 0.1 0.2 J PEDIAT EMERG INTEN 0.1 N/A ASEAN J PSYCHIATR 0.1 N/A ETHNOLOGIES 0.1 0.1 STUD PRAWNICZE KUL 0.1 N/A FILTR SEPARAT 0.1 0.1 Z EMPIR KULT 0.2 0.2 LINGUIST HUM SCI 0.2 0.3 TEXTUS-JERUSALEM 0.2 N/A J MIGRATION HIST 0.2 N/A LING ITAL 0.2 N/A REV HIST RELIG 0.2 0.2 INTERDISCIP ARCHAEOL 0.2 N/A IBER J HIST ECON TH 0.2 N/A VOX PATRUM 0.2 N/A OTOLARYNG CASE REP 0.2 N/A BALK ARASTIRMA ENST 0.2 0.1 CABAS 0.2 N/A JAEN J APPROX 0.2 0.4 CURR PROB CANCER-C R 0.2 0.2 J NEUROANAESTH CRIT 0.2 N/A PADIATR PADOL 0.2 0.1 J ADV APPL SCI RES 0.2 0.3 MSK-MUSKULOSKEL PHYS 0.2 0.2 NOESIS-REV CIENC SOC 0.2 0.2 GLOB INTELLECT HIST 0.3 N/A S ASIAN REV 0.3 N/A WITTGENSTEIN-STUD 0.3 N/A BIBLIC ANN 0.3 N/A B AM SOC OVERSEAS RE 0.3 N/A GABI J 0.3 0.6 STUD EUROPEJSKIE 0.3 N/A AUST J OTOLARYNGOL 0.3 N/A MEDIA JORNAL 0.3 N/A J EGYPT WOM DERM SOC 0.3 N/A CULT DIALOGUE 0.3 N/A TERRA LATINAM 0.3 N/A LECT ECON 0.3 N/A REV SENOL PATOL MAM 0.3 N/A ASTHMA ALLERGY IMMUN 0.3 0.4 REV GALEGA ECON 0.3 N/A EUR J GERIATR GERONT 0.3 N/A INFECT DIS CLIN MICR 0.3 0.3 J AGR MACH-IRAN 0.3 N/A E AFR LIT CULT STUD 0.4 N/A ORNIS HUNGARICA 0.4 N/A COGN LINGUIST STUD 0.4 N/A MATH APPL SCI ENG 0.4 0.5 CAN YEARB INT LAW 0.4 N/A CHINESE J ACAD RADIO 0.4 N/A COMUN SOC-GUADALAJ 0.4 N/A CASE REP ORTHOP 0.4 N/A J KULT 0.4 N/A CYPRUS TURK J PSYCHI 0.4 N/A AGROCIENCIA-URUGUAY 0.4 0.5 GERIATR PSYCHOL NEUR 0.4 0.5 COLL COMPOS COMMUN 0.5 0.7 MIDWEST STUD PHILOS 0.5 N/A J ANC NEAR E HIST 0.5 N/A METAL MUSIC STUD 0.5 N/A COGN SEMANT 0.5 N/A TECHNOL ARCHIT DES 0.5 N/A J ARAB MUSLIM MEDIA 0.5 N/A MLTJ-MUSCLE LIGAMENT 0.5 0.7 INT J ECON POLICY ST 0.5 N/A ASIAN PAC J REPROD 0.5 N/A INT J ABDOM WALL HER 0.5 N/A INT J HUM FACT ERGON 0.5 N/A SAINS TANAH 0.5 N/A REV BRAS CIENC AMBIE 0.5 N/A INORG MATER-APPL RES 0.5 N/A CHEM PROCESS ENG-N F 0.5 0.5 CELESTINESCA 0.6 N/A INT J TAIWAN STUD 0.6 0.7 GLOB STUD CHILDHOOD 0.6 N/A LEG PLUR CRIT SOC AN 0.6 0.6 NEW J EUR CRIM LAW 0.6 N/A J PATIENT SAF RISK M 0.6 N/A INRAE PROD ANIM 0.6 0.9 CZECH J INT RELAT 0.6 N/A EUR REV INT STUD 0.6 N/A SURG PRACT SCI 0.6 0.7 CASE REP OBSTET GYNE 0.6 N/A ASIA PAC SCHOLAR 0.6 N/A FINANZARCHIV 0.6 0.5 EUR J ANAL PHILOS 0.7 N/A REGIST STUD 0.7 1.8 MUSIC EDUCATORS J 0.7 N/A ANALYSIS-GER 0.7 N/A LANG CULT SOC 0.7 N/A REV RES MED MICROBIO 0.7 0.7 AGRAR S 0.7 N/A CASE REP WOMENS HLTH 0.7 N/A LEUKEMIA RES REP 0.7 N/A POWER ELECT DRIVES 0.7 N/A CHILD PAST 0.8 N/A GLOB CONST 0.8 N/A NEW ZEAL ECON PAP 0.8 N/A COLOMB INT 0.8 N/A HERIT LANG J 0.8 N/A POLAR J-UK 0.8 N/A WATER WAVES 0.8 1 ACTA INFORM PRAG 0.8 N/A MED PR 0.8 0.8 CURR TREAT OPT CARD 0.8 N/A HIST ECON REV 0.8 N/A ARCH CLIN CASES 0.8 N/A INT J CARDIOL CONGEN 0.8 0.8 J VASC BRAS 0.8 N/A CONTRASTIVE PRAGMAT 0.9 1 ANN FENN MATH 0.9 0.9 PSYCHOL LEAD LEADERS 0.9 0.9 AUST JOURNAL REV 0.9 N/A J BIOL ACT PROD NAT 0.9 N/A J PEDIATR NEUROPSYCH 0.9 N/A J PANCREATOL 0.9 N/A HEMATO-BASEL 0.9 0.9 TAPUYA 1 N/A JOMR-J ORAL MAXIL RE 1 N/A J YEUNGNAM MED SCI 1 1 J SPACE SAF ENG 1 N/A EUR BURN J 1 1 ANAL CHEM LETT 1 N/A DIABET EPIDEMIOL MAN 1 1 J INT COUNC SMALL BU 1 N/A EGYPT J INTERN MED 1 N/A HEART MIND 1 N/A CONSTR MATH ANAL 1.1 N/A INT J SOCIOL LANG 1.1 N/A J SCI SPORT EXERC 1.1 N/A AQUACULT FISH FISH 1.1 1.1 ANN HEPATO-BIL-PANCR 1.1 N/A REPROD MED-BASEL 1.1 1 OPTICS-BASEL 1.1 1.1 RISK MANAG INSUR REV 1.1 N/A J BASIC APPL ZOOL 1.1 N/A MEDENI MED J 1.1 N/A TOXICOL COMMUN 1.1 N/A J GLOB ENTREP RES 1.1 3.1 AM INDIAN CULT RES J 1.2 1.2 AJIL UNBOUND 1.2 N/A SEXES 1.2 N/A J HERBS SPICES MED P 1.2 N/A NEUROINTERVENTION 1.2 N/A PSYCHIAT INT 1.2 1.1 RHEUMATOL AUTOIMMUN 1.2 1.2 COGN COMPUT SYST 1.2 1.1 ACTA EPILEPTOL 1.2 1.2 NORD SOC WORK RES 1.3 N/A CRIT AFR STUD 1.3 N/A ADV NEURODEV DISORD 1.3 N/A NAWPA PACHA 1.3 N/A FRONT REHABIL SCI 1.3 1.3 MODELLING-BASEL 1.3 1.4 DRUG HABIT SOC POLIC 1.3 1.4 AGROSYS GEOSCI ENV 1.3 1.5 INT TRADE J 1.3 N/A BRAIN HEMORRHAGES 1.3 N/A J AM COLL CLIN PHARM 1.3 1.6 STAR PROTOC 1.3 1.5 DATA SCI FINANC ECON 1.3 1.3 AM HEART J PLUS 1.3 1.3 FRONT FUTURE TRANSP 1.3 1.2 FRONT SIGNAL PROC-SW 1.3 1.3 IND BIOTECHNOL 1.3 N/A J WOMEN MINOR SCI EN 1.4 N/A HUNG GEOGR BULL 1.4 N/A ORGANICS 1.4 1.5 REUMATOLOGIA 1.4 N/A DEN OPEN 1.4 1.4 STRUCT HEART 1.4 1.2 BIRDS-BASEL 1.5 N/A ARTHROPLAST TODAY 1.5 N/A SHOULDER ELBOW 1.5 N/A EUR J OBST GYN R B-X 1.5 N/A OCEANS-BASEL 1.5 1.5 OCNOS 1.5 1.1 FRONT DENT MED 1.5 1.6 FRONT NEUROERGONOM 1.5 1.6 IISE T HEALTHC SYST 1.5 N/A IJID REG 1.5 1.5 JMA J 1.5 N/A J MAGN RESON OPEN 1.5 N/A PLANT PHYSIOL REP 1.5 N/A J TOUR SUSTAIN WELL 1.5 1.9 ENVIRON QUAL MANAG 1.5 N/A HISP HEALTH CARE INT 1.5 N/A IET CYBER-SYST ROBOT 1.5 1.9 J CLIN MED RES-CAN 1.6 N/A NEUROSCI-BASEL 1.6 1.5 PREV NUTR FOOD SCI 1.6 N/A NITROGEN-BASEL 1.6 1.6 BIOSURF BIOTRIBOL 1.6 N/A GLOB PUBLIC POLICY G 1.6 1.6 BJUI COMPASS 1.6 N/A FRONT HEALTH SERV 1.6 1.6 CURR RES PARASITOL V 1.7 1.7 HEALTH POLICY OPEN 1.7 N/A J BEHAV COGN THER 1.7 N/A J ECON FINANC-US 1.7 N/A AGING BRAIN 1.7 2 ECOLOGIES-BASEL 1.7 1.7 J ASIAN EARTH SCI-X 1.7 1.8 J BUS ANAL 1.7 2.3 HEPATOMA RES 1.7 N/A INT J SCH EDUC PSYCH 1.8 N/A HAND-AM ASSOC HAND S 1.8 N/A CLIN SHOULDER ELB 1.8 N/A FOOT ANKLE SPEC 1.8 N/A SSM-QUAL RES HEALTH 1.8 1.8 J BONE JOINT INFECT 1.8 N/A EXPLOR RES CLIN SOC 1.8 1.8 INFECT PREV PRACT 1.8 N/A ADV AGR 1.8 N/A ONE ECOSYSTEM 1.8 N/A BIOL THEORY 1.9 N/A ARCH REHAB RES CLIN 1.9 1.9 NEW REV ACAD LIBR 1.9 N/A MANAG MARK 1.9 2.3 CHINA ECON Q INT 1.9 N/A PLASMA-BASEL 1.9 N/A CEREB CIRC-COGN BEHA 1.9 N/A NUTR HEALTH-UK 1.9 N/A BRAIN SPINE 1.9 N/A CLIN PARKINSON RELAT 1.9 N/A INT J FASH DES TECHN 1.9 N/A FRONT CONSERV SCI 1.9 1.9 HUM NUTR METAB 1.9 N/A GLOB ENERG INTER-PRC 1.9 N/A FRONT ELECTRON 1.9 N/A JOURNAL MEDIA 2 2.1 WORLD-BASEL 2 1.9 ORG AGR 2 N/A ADV CANCER BIOL-MET 2 2 CANCER RES COMMUN 2 N/A LIVER RES-PRC 2 N/A ADV MODEL SIMUL ENG 2 N/A FRONT VIROL-LAUSANNE 2 2 GEN BIOTECHNOL 2 2 GENUS 2.1 N/A ARCH PHYSIOTHER 2.1 N/A BMJ SURG INTERV HLTH 2.1 1.8 FRONT ANIM SCI 2.1 2.1 CURR RES PHYSIOL 2.1 2 AFFECT SCI 2.1 2.2 J ZOOL BOT GARD 2.1 2.2 TELECOM 2.1 2 COMPR PSYCHONEUROEND 2.1 2 FRONT FUNGAL BIOL 2.1 2.1 EARTH-BASEL 2.1 2.1 STROKE-VASC INTERV N 2.1 2.1 FRONT SOIL SCI 2.1 2.1 FRONT COMMUN NETW 2.1 2.4 IMMUNO-BASEL 2.1 2.1 PNAS NEXUS 2.2 2.2 CURR RES INSECT SCI 2.2 2.2 CONTEMP ITAL POLIT 2.2 N/A AM J PHYSIOL-REG I 2.2 2.8 INT J DYNAM CONTROL 2.2 N/A FISH SHELL IMMUN REP 2.2 2.2 FRONT HUM DYNAM 2.2 2.2 PLANT GENE 2.2 N/A APPL ENG SCI 2.2 N/A PUBLIC HEALTH PRACT 2.2 2.5 AGING MED-PRC 2.2 N/A J INT ASSOC PRO AIDS 2.2 N/A REACTIONS-BASEL 2.2 2.1 FRONT GLOB WOMEN HLT 2.3 2.9 INT J STRATEG COMMUN 2.3 N/A FRONT POLIT SCI 2.3 2.3 INT J ART THER 2.3 2.6 CONTEMP DRUG PROBL 2.3 N/A J HEALTH ECON OUTCOM 2.3 N/A JBJS OPEN ACCESS 2.3 N/A ARRAY-NY 2.3 N/A SPORTS MED HLTH SCI 2.3 4 FRONT REPROD HEALTH 2.3 2.3 CONTEMP EDUC TECHNOL 2.4 N/A MOL CELL PEDIATR 2.4 N/A FRONT INSECT SCI 2.4 2.4 WELLBEING SPACE SOC 2.4 2.4 BIOINFORM ADV 2.4 N/A DIABETOLOGY 2.4 2.4 BIOPHYS REP-US 2.4 N/A SOLIDS-BASEL 2.4 2.4 AUTISM DEV LANG IMP 2.5 2.7 BJGP OPEN 2.5 N/A FRONT PAIN RES 2.5 2.5 IET QUANTUM COMMUN 2.5 3.2 CJC OPEN 2.5 2.1 FRONT CHEM ENG 2.5 2.6 EUR J HIGH EDUC 2.6 N/A J CONTEM E ASIA STUD 2.6 N/A J FUNCT MORPHOL KIN 2.6 N/A TRANSP INFRASTRUCT G 2.6 N/A UPSTREAM OIL GAS TEC 2.6 2.6 CARDIOVASC DIGIT HLT 2.6 N/A COMPUT URBAN SCI 2.6 2.6 NAT SCI-GER 2.6 2.7 ECNU REV EDUC 2.7 N/A PATHOPHYSIOLOGY-BASE 2.7 N/A GEOCHRONOLOGY 2.7 3.7 FOUND TRENDS DATABAS 2.7 2.8 J URBAN MOBIL 2.7 2.7 BIOTECH-BASEL 2.7 N/A PALLIAT CARE SOC PR 2.7 N/A ENDOCRIN DIAB METAB 2.7 2.5 ENVIRON RES-INFRASTR 2.7 2.7 FRONT MED TECHNOL 2.7 3.1 FUELS-BASEL 2.7 2.6 ADV SIMUL 2.8 N/A DIABET METAB SYND OB 2.8 3.3 FRONT BIOINFORM 2.8 2.8 J PREV MED PUBLIC HL 2.8 N/A FLOW-CAMBRIDGE 2.8 2.8 PERFORM ENHANC HLTH 2.9 N/A BIOPHYS REV-US 2.9 N/A OPEN CERAM 2.9 3 ELECTROCHEM SCI ADV 2.9 3 OXF OPEN MATER SCI 2.9 3.1 ALCOHOL CLIN EXP RES 3 3.6 FRONT ORAL HEALTH 3 3.1 JTO CLIN RES REP 3 3.2 INT J PAVEMENT RES T 3 N/A DIGIT CHEM ENG 3 3 ANAL SCI ADV 3 2.8 ENVIRON SUSTAIN 3 N/A INT J NURS STUD ADV 3.1 3.6 J PSYCHOPATHOL CLIN 3.1 N/A COMPUT TOXICOL 3.1 N/A BOSNIAN J BASIC MED 3.1 3.3 AI-BASEL 3.1 3.3 MATER QUANTUM TECHN 3.1 3.1 CARBON TRENDS 3.1 N/A OPHTHALMOL SCI 3.2 3.2 HIGH-CONFID COMPUT 3.2 3.2 FRONT DIGIT HEALTH 3.2 3.3 FRONT VIRTUAL REAL 3.2 3.6 FORCES MECH 3.2 3.1 ENERGY ADV 3.2 3.2 BMJ NUTR PREV HLTH 3.3 N/A FRONT CLIM 3.3 3.9 ENERG MATER FRONT 3.3 3.4 FRONT AGING-LAUSANNE 3.3 3.4 J MANAG GOV 3.3 3.3 ACS ORG INORG AU 3.3 3.3 FRONT ALLERGY 3.3 3.3 WEAR TECHNOL 3.4 3.8 FRONT REMOTE SENS 3.4 3.4 INT J MECH SYST DYN 3.4 3.5 ANAL SENS 3.4 3.4 BIOSAF HEALTH 3.5 N/A JMIR INFODEMIOL 3.5 3.5 SENS DIAGN 3.5 3.5 FRONT AGRON 3.5 3.9 ENVIRON SCI-ADV 3.5 3.5 FRONT TOXICOL 3.6 3.7 TOXICON-X 3.6 3.1 WASTE DISPOS SUST EN 3.6 4.1 J SAF SCI RESIL 3.7 4.8 ACM T QUANTUM COMPUT 3.7 4.2 BRAIN BEHAV IMMUN-HL 3.7 N/A PHENOMICS 3.7 3.7 CLEAN RESPONS CONSUM 3.7 3.7 ACS PHYS CHEM AU 3.7 3.7 POLICY REV HIGH EDUC 3.8 N/A TQM J 3.8 N/A ACS BIO MED CHEM AU 3.8 3.8 CURR HEART FAIL REP 3.8 N/A WEATHER CLIM 3.8 1.8 TRANSP RES INTERDISC 3.9 N/A EUR HEART J-DIGIT HL 3.9 3.9 MARIT TRANSPORT RES 3.9 4 ADV IND MANUF ENG 3.9 3.9 BIOL PSYCHIAT-GLOB O 4 N/A ANN TOUR RES EMPIR I 4 N/A EUR J MED CHEM REP 4 4 CELL REGEN 4 N/A EFOOD 4 3.9 NFS J 4.1 N/A TALANTA OPEN 4.1 4.3 SSM-MENT HEALTH 4.1 4.1 IMMUNOTHER ADV 4.1 4.1 FRONT NANOTECHNOL 4.1 4.3 INT J INNOV STUD 4.2 N/A AVS QUANTUM SCI 4.2 N/A PETROLEUM-PRC 4.2 N/A CARD FAIL REV 4.2 N/A ADDIT MANUF LETT 4.2 4.2 INT J TRANSP SCI TEC 4.3 N/A REG SUSTAIN 4.3 4.4 ACS ENG AU 4.3 4.3 WEATHER CLIM DYNAM 4.4 4.6 PROG ADDIT MANUF 4.4 N/A INTEL MED 4.4 4.7 APPL FOOD RES 4.5 4.5 MLIFE 4.5 4.5 J ECOHYDRAULICS 4.6 N/A MOL THER METH CLIN D 4.6 5.2 ACS MEAS SCI AU 4.6 4.6 ACTA ECOL SINICA 4.7 N/A POLYSACCHARIDES-BASE 4.7 4.6 J PIPELINE SCI ENG 4.8 4.8 CURR RES MICROB SCI 4.8 4.8 ACS NANOSCI AU 4.8 4.8 COMPUT HUM BEHAV REP 4.9 5.2 FRONT GENOME EDIT 4.9 4.6 BIOPHYS REV-GER 4.9 N/A J NAT GAS SCI ENG 4.9 5 J MEMBRANE SCI LETT 4.9 4.9 ASIAN J SOC HEAL BEH 5 N/A LANCET REG HLTH-SE A 5 5 BME FRONT 5 N/A APPL ENERG COMBUST S 5 4.8 ISME COMMUN 5.1 5.1 WATER BIOL SECUR 5.1 5.1 ADV SAMPLE PREP 5.2 5.2 J FUTURE FOODS 5.2 5.2 MOL THER ONCOLYTICS 5.3 5.2 CLEAN ENG TECHNOL 5.3 5.6 COMMUN MED-LONDON 5.4 5.4 RESOUR CONS RECY ADV 5.4 5.4 SMART ENERGY-UK 5.4 5.4 J HAZARD MATER ADV 5.4 5.4 NANOSCALE RES LETT 5.5 5.5 CHEM ENG J ADV 5.5 N/A SUPERCONDUCT-PRC 5.6 5.6 SCI REMOTE SENSING 5.7 7.8 ACS MATER AU 5.7 5.7 NEUROMORPH COMPUT EN 5.8 5.8 ENERGY CLIM CHANG-UK 5.8 5.1 CHEM METHODS 6.1 N/A CHEM PHYS REV 6.1 N/A DIGIT DISCOV 6.2 6.2 SMART AGR TECHNOL 6.3 6.3 MOL THER NUCL ACIDS 6.5 6.7 J HAZARD MATER LETT 6.6 6.4 CURR OPIN ENV SCI HL 6.7 8.1 ACS ENVIRON AU 6.7 6.7 IEEE J MICROW 6.9 6.9 CLEAN LOGIST SUPPL C 6.9 6.9 FUTURE FOODS 7.2 7.2 J NATL CANCER CTR 7.6 7.8 INFORM PROCESS AGR 7.7 N/A IEEE OPEN J IND APPL 7.9 8.7 ENERGY NEXUS 8 8 ARTIF INTELL AGR 8.2 N/A GREEN SYNTH CATAL 8.2 8.4 J REMOTE SENS-PRC 8.8 9.5 ENVIRON CHEM ECOTOX 9 7.9 BATTERY ENERGY 9 N/A NPJ URBAN SUSTAIN 9.1 9.1 GREEN CHEM ENG 9.1 9.1 NAT CARDIOVASC RES 9.4 9.4 ENERGY AI 9.6 10.6 ADV IND ENG POLY RES 9.9 N/A CARBON CAPTURE SCI T 10.4 N/A CYBORG BIONIC SYST 10.5 10.7 MOL HORTIC 10.6 10.6 CELL GENOM 11.1 N/A PROG ENERGY 11.5 11.7 ENERGY MATER-US 11.8 12 MATER FUTURES 12 12 APPL COMPUT INFORM 12.3 N/A RESOUR ENVIRON SUST 12.4 11.9 COMMUN TRANSP RES 12.5 12.5 ADV APPL ENERGY 13 13.1 IEEE-CAA J AUTOMATIC 15.3 10.3 NAT REV PSYCHOL 16.8 16.8 J BIORESOUR BIOPROD 20.2 N/A APPL CATAL B-ENVIRON 20.2 18.9 IMETA 23.7 23.7 INTERD MATER 24.5 24.7 ELIGHT 27.2 27.2 ADV POWDER MATER 28.6 28.6 ESCIENCE 42.9 42.9 INT J HIST CULT MOD <0.1 N/A LIET ISTOR STUD <0.1 N/A NEW ENGL REV-MIDDLEB <0.1 <0.1 Z FR SPRACHE LIT <0.1 0.1 ARTFORUM INT <0.1 0.1 ZOGRAF <0.1 0.1 ACTA UL FOL LITT ROM <0.1 N/A J LUSOPHONE STUD <0.1 0.1 EDUC FIS DEPORTE <0.1 0.2 ARCH BIBL MUZ KOSC <0.1 N/A INDIAN J PSYCHOL SCI <0.1 <0.1 J BEHCET UZ CHILD <0.1 <0.1 REV CHIL NEUROPSICOL <0.1 0.2 A U-ARCHIT URBAN <0.1 <0.1 DIGITAR-REV DIGIT AR <0.1 <0.1 JAHRB BERLIN MUSEEN <0.1 <0.1 J AFR MIL HIST <0.1 N/A REV FILOS LA PLATA <0.1 <0.1 REV E-MERCATORIA <0.1 <0.1 SALUD ARTE CUID <0.1 <0.1 SIGMAE <0.1 0.1 YEARB COMP LIT <0.1 0.1 NAT SYNTH N/A N/A GEOENERGY SCI ENG N/A N/A IEEE MICROW WIREL TE N/A N/A INT J SOC DETER HLTH N/A N/A HIGH TEMP CORR MATER N/A N/A SMART GRID SUST EN N/A N/A CAN J RESP THER N/A N/A J CLIN PRACT RES N/A N/A IRAN J SCI N/A N/A ANN IST STO ITA-GERM N/A N/A CLIN EPILEPTOL N/A N/A ADV KIDNEY DIS HEAL N/A N/A ADV REHAB SCI PRAC N/A N/A ASIAN J APPL ECON N/A N/A ASME J HEAT MASS TRA N/A N/A BIOMOL BIOMED N/A N/A CAMB PRISM-GLOB MENT N/A N/A CAN J MINERAL PETROL N/A N/A COMMUN ANAL MECH N/A N/A ENDOCRINOL RES PRACT N/A N/A EURASIAN J CHEM N/A N/A EUR MANAGE STUD N/A N/A FRONT MATH-PRC N/A N/A GLOBAL PHILOS N/A N/A INTERDISC CARDIOV TH N/A N/A J MICROORG CONTROL N/A N/A J SUBST USE ADDICT T N/A N/A PARASITE HOST DIS N/A N/A ROBOT INTELL AUTOMAT N/A N/A SPAN J PSYCHIAT MENT N/A N/A THER ADV ALLERG RHIN N/A N/A THER ADV PULM CRIT C N/A N/A THORAC RES PRACT N/A N/A TURK J CIV ENG N/A N/A UROL RES PRACT N/A N/A

我們預測的咋樣？

????

預測IF的方法目前主要還是根據官方給的公式來進行的，但是實際的算法還是比較復雜的，我還沒深入去了解，但是總的來說，預測結果已經大差不差了。按照預測值/實際值來算，68.22%的期刊的影響因子誤差范圍是±10%以內（圖3上）。從表明看，準確率是比較低的，其原因可能是因為大量SCI期刊的影響因子基數太低，所以用比值的話，差異會特別大。所以，我又換了個方法，通過預測值-實際值來計算差值來進行比較，結果證明我們預測的準確度還是挺高的，可以達到87.87%（圖3下）。

圖3IF預測值與實際值（IF2023）的比較，比值（上），差值（下）。

Tools

都在這里：

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