這是一輛平平無奇的自行車。車身就是普通金屬材料，沒什么碳纖維之類高大上的科技加成；車型設計也沒什么出彩，甚至這種款式在國內也已不常見，反倒經常在上個世紀八十九年代的電視劇里出場，自帶復古光環。

就這么一輛不算特別出眾的自行車，在比利時的店里要價兩百多歐元，折合成人民幣兩千多塊。對于當地人來說兩百多歐元也不是什么小錢，所以25歲的馬蒂亞斯（Matthias）選擇在二手店里淘這輛車，不過也花了120歐元，對剛畢業不久的他來說可是個不小的負擔。

難怪小馬同學和他的小伙伴們把自行車像寶貝一樣鎖在架子上。隨著共享單車的普及，這種做法在國內早已沒見過了……

On the streets of Brussels, a basic single-speed bike, nothing fancy in design or materials, goes for over 200 euros. For many young people, that is not pocket change. Matthias, a 25-year-old graduate I spoke to, didn't buy his from a shiny high street shop; he scoured a secondhand store and still had to pay 120 euros, which for him is a sizable expense. No wonder, he and his friends lock up their bikes like prized possessions, in sharp contrast to China's near-ubiquitous dockless sharing bikes, often left unchained outside shops and apartments.

在歐洲留心下物價不難發現，這邊的工業制成品是真貴，自行車只能算是其中一個小例子。這邊很多人家里裝的是射燈，不是要模仿酒店風，而是因為吸頂燈太貴。國內一款風扇燈三四百人民幣，折合四五十歐元，這邊質量差不多的卻動輒要兩百歐元。

或許有人說品牌不一樣價格也不一樣嘛，而且自行車和吊燈都只是初級工業品而已。那好，這么一對任天堂磁吸游戲手柄，國內600人民幣出頭，在這里價簽卻是89.99歐元，比國內貴了一百多人民幣。再看看蘋果手機，iPhone 16e在蘋果中國區官網上售價4499元人民幣起，在這里的底價卻是719歐元，差價更是高達一千多人民幣。

Take a pair of Nintendo Joy-Con controllers: in China, they cost a bit over 600 yuan, but in Europe the sticker price is 89.99 euros — about 100 yuan more after conversion. Even household basics show this curious spread: a simple ceiling fan light might sell for around 300 to 400 yuan in China — about 40 to 50 euros — but in a Belgian store, a similar quality fixture typically costs nearly double that, around 80 to 100 euros.

那么有沒有一種可能，歐洲畢竟是發達地區，人工、房租、物流成本都高？我們去翻翻同樣是發達國家的美國，iPhone 16e在蘋果官網最低價是599美元，比起比利時的同款產品719歐元，差距更大了！

在全球市場互聯互通的今天，同一款產品在一個地方的價格高于其它地區，且差距能達到成本的15%左右，這背后一定事出有因。

A brand-new iPhone 16e currently sells for 4,499 yuan ($627.72) on Apple's China website — roughly 575 euros ($676) at today's exchange rate. But walk into an Apple Store in Brussels and the exact same model starts at 719 euros, more than 1,000 yuan higher than in China. If you check the US Apple Store, the price starts at $599, which only widens the gap further.

筆者在當地和國內都請教了幾位經濟學家。造成此等現象一個重要的原因是，與中國和美國相比，歐洲各國拋棄工業的步伐實在過于迅速了點。以制造業強國德國為例，工業增加值占其總經濟規模的比重在1991年還高居33.27%，到2009年就下降到了23.87%，雖幾經努力回升，今天也不過是26%左右的水平，再也回不到巔峰。

What's behind these price gaps? Several European economists I interviewed pointed to a pattern that many in Europe would rather not discuss openly: the continent has moved away from industrial production faster than anywhere else in the developed world. Take the example of Germany, which has historically been Europe's industrial powerhouse. In 1991, industry made up over 33 percent of Germany's total economy. By 2009, it had dropped to under 24 percent, and even after years of efforts to revive manufacturing, it still hovers around 26 percent, far below its peak.

德國工業增加值占其總經濟規模的比重

歐盟所在的比利時，工業比例更是從1995年的26.11%下降到了2023年的18.53%，這8個百分點的背后是大量的工業產業被關閉，大量的服務業企業出現并占據了其空缺的生態位。歐盟幾個典型經濟體在過去幾十年中都經歷了服務業崛起，占比都在70%左右，這是典型的現代經濟結構。

In Belgium, the story is even starker. Industrial output as a share of GDP fell from 26 percent in the mid-1990s to under 19 percent in 2023. Those lost percentage points represent factories shuttered, machines scrapped, jobs that shifted from factory floors to service counters and glass-walled offices. Across the EU's major economies, the same pattern holds true: industry shrinks while services expand, now making up about 70 percent of most national economies.

從經濟學上看，這是經濟結構現代化的重要體現，也導致這些國家的就業結構發生了變化。無論是比利時還是德國還是法國，今天走在大街上都很難見到產業工人，本來就占總人口比例不高的就業人口中，只有十分之一左右選擇了工業崗位。曾經穿著工裝的人們換上了西裝，曾經的工人變成了金融咨詢客服，手里拿著平板電腦跟客戶在咖啡廳款款而談，見他們還要提前至少三天預約時間。

這當然是一種社會進步——能當風度翩翩的商務人士，誰愿意在工廠里弄一身機油呢？

On paper, this is modern economic evolution. A larger service sector is often seen as a sign of progress, higher living standards, and smarter, more flexible jobs. You rarely see factory workers on the streets of Brussels, Berlin, or Paris these days. The same people who once tightened bolts on an assembly line now tap on tablets, guiding clients through insurance plans and mortgage refinancing — ideally over a cappuccino in a cafe booked three days in advance.

Who wouldn't rather be a suited-up consultant than a grease-stained machinist?

但過猶不及，當去工業化達到比較極端的地步時，其負面效應就會凸顯。大家都忙著給客戶做金融規劃，沒有人再從事生產了，整個經濟就會脫實向需。工業被放棄的多了，許多工業制成品就會需要進口，價格就會底氣十足地漲上去，最終還是消費者扛下了所有。

前幾天去拜訪一位歐洲學者，專門聊了這個話題。這位老兄的研究方向是現代科技與數字經濟，他是十分贊同中國企業進軍歐洲市場的，因為這是個雙贏的好事——中國人賺錢，歐洲人享受到價廉物美的商品。而且老兄言行一致，絕不搞葉公好龍那一套，人家自己開的就是產自中國的電動車，號稱是他們小城第一輛，當然這句話多少有點吹牛的成分。

Not long ago, I visited a European scholar who studies modern tech and the digital economy. He was refreshingly honest about the contradiction: he fully supports Chinese companies selling into Europe, calling it a win-win. Chinese enterprises make money while European consumers get affordable, good-quality products. He was true to his word, too — he proudly showed me his Chinese-made electric car, which he claimed was the first of its kind in his small city (though he admitted he might have exaggerated a bit). He started it up for me, soft ambient light glowing through the panoramic sunroof.

他光吹還不過癮，啟動了自己的中國產電動車，柔和的燈光透過全景天窗灑在方向盤上。他很友好但也很尖銳地指出，中國的工業品在歐洲并不是很受消費者認可。一向不服的我當場掏出手機查數據，發現他說的不是沒有道理，以小鵬汽車為例，2025年2月在德國的注冊量翻倍，但總數只有162輛。相比于國內以十萬為統計單位的注冊量，這只是個小小的零頭。

這位經濟學家給出的建議是，中國企業多在歐洲設廠，多跟當地人打打交道，在他們身邊多刷刷存在感，不要讓人覺得是歐亞大陸的另一端生產了東西，只靠著銷售代表運到這里來賣。“歐洲人是比較認品牌的，他們更喜歡身邊很熟悉的牌子，像鄰里街坊一樣。”他表示，“什么時候中國企業員工就在他們身邊，和他們一起吃飯聊天，什么時候他們的信任度就提上去了。”

But he didn't just praise Chinese industry. He also offered a blunt observation: despite the appeal of lower prices, Chinese goods still don't command the same trust among European consumers. I tried to challenge him on that, pulling up the latest data for Chinese electric car sales in Europe. He was right. In February 2025, registrations for Xpeng vehicles doubled in Germany — but the total was still only 162 cars. Compared to China's domestic EV market, where brands measure monthly sales in tens or hundreds of thousands, that's barely a rounding error.

His advice to Chinese companies? If you want Europeans to buy your products, don't just ship them in from Asia and hire a local sales rep. Build factories here. Hire locals. Sponsor the local football team. Make your brand feel like the friendly neighbor down the street — not a faceless exporter on the other side of the planet. "Europeans trust brands they see around them, brands that feel familiar," he said. "If Chinese companies employ local people, join local events, share the same lunch tables — trust will follow."

其實反過來想想，這又何嘗不是歐洲過去發達的工業留下的回響呢？人類第一次工業革命起源于歐洲，前幾次工業革命也都以歐洲為主場，對歐洲居民來說，工業是他們的傳統，造汽車造飛機造宇宙飛船在他們看來不是新鮮事物，而是“自古以來”的產業。所以他們才會對工業有著鄰居般的感覺，也會在經濟發展到一定地步時拋棄工業。

成也工業，敗也工業啊。

這對于中國來說，是機遇也是警醒。中國企業在進軍海外，Made in China正在以堅實可靠的質量和高度親民的價格證明自己不是低劣品質商品的代名詞。而隨著中國社會的進步，大量的服務業也在取代工業的位置。當然我不是說中國人就該進廠打螺絲，中國制造業從業者應該享有充分的薪資水平和勞動保護，但如何在提高勞動者獲得感的同時為中國保留足夠份額的工業生產能力，在發展中預判并避免歐洲國家已經凸顯的問題，應當是我們需要努力的方向。

In a way, Europe's uneasy relationship with industrial decline is rooted in its own past. The world's first Industrial Revolution began here. For centuries, Europe was synonymous with engineering prowess — cars, planes, ships, locomotives, even the rockets that once reached the stars. For Europeans, making things wasn't just an economic necessity; it was identity. Small wonder that when an economy moves past manufacturing, people miss it — not in the sense that they want to return to the assembly line, but in the sense that they still trust what they can see, touch, and assemble themselves.

Europe's story holds a clear lesson for China. Today, "Made in China" has become shorthand for reliable quality and unbeatable price. But China is rapidly shifting too: gleaming skyscrapers and thriving service firms fill its biggest cities. More and more young graduates prefer laptops and design studios over factory floors. And rightly so — no one should have to "tighten screws" for life. Chinese workers deserve fair pay, strong labor protection, and better working conditions.

記者：張周項

實習生：楊佳潤

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